re: melb roadshow 618 ...and mputa2 It was a pleasure indeed KA! :))
My own impression of the M2 find, and I might be wrong in this, is not particularly encouraging for M2 itself, not expecting it commercial at that location. M1 had less than expected net to gross than HDR had originally expected, and M2 is believed to have somewhat less than M1. Also, though I'm no geo, the upper zone was water wet but also high to prognosis, so perhaps the lateral extent of HCs in the upper zone is not great.
I agree with you to some extent, but I wouldn't write off M2 yet. Bear in mind M2 is a sizeable step-out from M1 (3km). Whilst the oil accumulation in the upper zone may be somewhat modest with M2 being water wet, it is still quite encouraging that the reservoir sand extended that far out. It's important to note that there's some analogy in the structure between M and W. So the probability of seeing similar lateral extension of the reservoir sand in the upper and lower zone at W should have increased as a result of M2. As for the bottom section, well, NTG at M1 was about 30%. If it is 200-250m of shale-reservoir sand composite, then 30% is still quite a significant column (60-75m). Assuming the NTG for the bottom section at M2 is half that (15%), we're still looking at a net column of 30-45m (assuming similar gross column). So approximately speaking, we are looking at an average of 40-50m net column for 3km aerial extent.
Based on what SP said yesterday, we're clearly not looking at one continuous homogenous reservoir, but potentially several reservoir along the shorelines (perhaps 4 to 5 with potential resource of 30-50MBO). The trend in the quality of oil is also interesting. M1 recovered waxy oil while W1 recovered light sweet crude. They mentioned that 2Ds are being shot over the Northern section of Block 2. Maybe the quality of the oil gets better as we head further north?
A question that now sticks out in my mind but I didn't have the nous yesterday to ask is whether or not they hit water in the lower zone. SP may have said if they had, so hopefully there's a positive there.
I don't think they did, but logs would confirm this.
Unfortunately those wells will be months off as the rig will be heading to Kingfisher next.
Kingfisher should be finished by end of June. Three exploration wells have already been scheduled to be drilled in Block 2 after that. So it's not that much of a wait I think :)) Anyway, we'll have the flow testing of W1 as well as M1 (or M2) to keep us occupied until then.
I quizzed him on the Guyane slide which shows the western boundary as "undefined" (quite close to Matamata). As I thought this is a boundary issue between Guyane and its neighbour, however SP said that this wasn't a significant issue.
Knew I forgot to mention something!! Thanks for reminding me... Were you there when I asked SP about the two offshore Suriname blocks on offer? SP's comment was very interesting, but basically, it is more than likely than Hardman will be bidding for those blocks given its close proximity to Matamata.
Not much else to report that hasn't been said before. I can't really see a significant hike in the share price in next 3-4 months, barring a rank Woodie wildcat (Colin) or Faucon coming in. WPL rank Colin highly, but that doesn't really mean diddly given their last several years record. Faucon doesn't look bad on slides, just hoping it has the goods...
Faucon does have the goods, about 200BCF worth of gas :) but I know what you meant - Flamant :) Interesting views on the SP though. I fully agree with mpv's thoughts that there are sufficient key newsflow coming through in the next 2 months to keep the market interested.
Hope both you and butch had a good trip back :)
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HDR
hardman resources limited
