Gold – the final bubble, page-3785

Johnny,

There are a couple of assumptions that I personally want to dispel in the name of my personal judgement at the current state of play. It has more to do with psychology than some special technical tool or privy information to a small circle stuff.

Your trendline break is showing a topping which is correct so far. With such a strong bull trend in the Dow, I suspect it takes a special occasion to have that upside down V shape collapse. BUT the potential is there so in most cases you get a lower peak as the first indication. Ditto the XJO. XGD is still range bound so it could break either way.

Again, personally when price has been in a trend, there are more chances the trend will hold rather reverse. If you are picking the top or the bottom, you get in at ground Zero and if you are correct you ride it all the way to the other side. I think this requires more luck than just pure timing. Peter Schiff was calling the market collapse for 2 years from memory before it eventuated. Can you withstand all that market action against your call in $$ before you as a contrarian get trodden over?

Secondly I have nothing to prove by being right yet comes out $$ worse off. I rather being wrong but still come out only a little $$ better off. If one has the "all in" attitude, one better have a strong conviction to hold draw down for however long it last and not get shaken out by relief when the inevitable breakeven is realised and get out.

When you have BIG exposure in whatever asset class be it property, stocks, bonds, collector items etc, what are are the chances your psychology can see the negatives? If these so call 'punts' are that popular and effective, don't you think it would be the favorite strategy of the Fund managers and hedge funds? Even P Schiff who is totally bias towards gold are advising his clients to get exposure in the EM via their stock markets.

I have been of the belief for awhile now that some famous traders/investors have been hinting one should only control the things one can. Too many 'Gurus' have been focusing only on entry and/or exits but ignoring what one does in between. This is the important bit unless one can forecast tops and bottom accurately and that usually require hindsight chart study and hypothetical scenarios of management using 'if then ' unemotional decision making.

I'll try to have an unbiased view of current situation and this in not easy with the noises amplified daily as a media frenzy and panic selling but that is the market, never a dull moment.