First CellCube Vanadium-Redox-Flow storage systems installed in Czech Republic, page-26

So, I'm not sure I'm entirely with Meerkat here, but just the same - I've sold out entirely for the first time since buying 1M options for 1.8c back in early 2014 over the last few days.

I think the macro picture does not work for TNG right now.

* Vanadium demand is is doubt, Vanadium supply seems strong.
* Alternative energies are going to have to take a back seat for a while as cheap oil/energy is here for the next few years on much lower global growth, with Iran back on line, shale oil the marginal producer and currency wars amongst the majors. I believe in the future in vanadium batteries at the infrastructure level, but it is a hard sell right now.
* TNG needs a lot of capital - essentially $1B AUD. I was trying to sell a business as the GFC was breaking out (to a major multinational) - we got to a point where their CFO just made a unilateral call of no more acquisitions / investments - let us hold our cash and wait. I think TNG will face this for the moment, even though I don't think this is yet the major crash. Yes, the Koreans / Chinese / Germans will be interested, but given the macro picture we have, why would they move now? Why wouldn't they keep their powder dry. If the global economy does continue to deteriorate then they would rather have the cash in bank, or buy TNG assets on the even cheaper.
* Iron prices are stuffed - it hasn't been a popular topic here, but a decent chunk of TNGs total earnings come from Fe, and the world is increasingly looking like Fe will be in oversupply- to think this won't touch TNGs Iron Oxide is to live in a fantasy. This in turn hurts the Vanadium market, as both the supply moves with Iron as does the demand!

Don't get me wrong - TNG has a great mine at Mt Peake - someone will make good money from it (eventually) and I hope to buy back in at favourable levels. But while global markets, and in particular both global metal and energy markets are in turmoil PB has a very tough job ahead of him. Capital will be hard to come by, people will doubt his forecasts, and terms will be onerous. Yes, the AUD helps, yes, labour will get cheaper, etc etc - but I'll watch from the sidelines for my moment for now.

GLTA holders. Happy to bank a healthy profit and be wrong, but would hate to hold and be wrong.


--Q