Climate scientists are predicting that 2015 will be the hottest year on record “by a mile”, with the increase in worldwide average temperatures dramatically undermining the idea that global warming has stopped – as some climate-change sceptics claim.
The average temperature increase will be so much higher than the previous record, set in 2014, that it should melt away any remaining arguments about the so-called “pause” in global warming, which many climate sceptics have promoted as an argument against action on climate change.
It will mean that the three warmest years since records began in 1880 – 2015, 2014 and 2010 – happened in the past five years, and nine out of the 10 warmest years have all occurred in the 21st century. It demonstrates that global warming is getting worse and underlines the importance of the international meeting in Paris in December to discuss a new legally binding agreement on climate change.
Temperature data on land and sea gathered around the world by US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa), the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) and the UK Met Office all points to a significant increase in global average temperatures this year, both on land and sea.
“It’s a sure thing. If you want a number, I would say about 99 per cent [certain],” said Professor James Hansen, a veteran climate researcher at Columbia University in New York and former director of Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “A huge volcano could have an effect, but it had better be Krakatoa-size or bigger and occur within the next month or so if it is to have much effect on 2015’s global temperature,” Professor Hansen told The Independent.
