nickel hits fresh record high , page-7

nah nickel will be a surplus probably Nah Nickel will be a surplus probably

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000080&sid=aOeQTA4M2VYs

To be sure, a further rally in nickel prices may be capped by the threat of substitution, Mark Pervan, head of research at Daiwa Securities SMBC, said from Melbourne on May 17. ``Nickel is vulnerable to substitution, like we saw in 2005.''

Stainless steelmakers last year used less nickel, choosing to use more manganese and molybdenum to increase the strength and anti-corrosive properties of the alloy. In contrast with the gains in nickel prices, molybdenum prices gained 10 percent this year to $61 a kilogram as of May 12, while manganese has fallen 18 percent, according to Metal Bulletin.

Table of Forecasts on Nickel Prices, Demand-Supply Balance

Company Average Price Forecast* Demand-Supply**
ANZ Bank $13,500 8,000-ton surplus
ABARE $13,705 4,000-ton surplus
AME Mineral $15,278 2,000-ton surplus
Deutsche Bank $15,520 4,000-ton surplus
Daiwa $17,703 7,500-ton surplus
Sumitomo Metal -- 6,000-ton surplus
Eramet -- 30,000-ton surplus

*in dollars a metric ton, basis LME cash.
**measures how much supply will exceed demand by in metric
tons.

thx

MS