jp morgan valuation, page-11

Hello capman,

I knew my post would guarantee a response from you :)

618, what has changed since others on hc were venting their grievances towards sp and you were defending him?

I still bellieve what he has done to date, in terms of new acreage, Uganda and retention of control over Guyane, is satisfactory. The problem I have is exactly as I had stated in my original post - that he wasn't being entirely truthful throughout the AGMs/roadshows with regards to the Chinguetti production issue. The O&G sector is a difficult one to manage, with your popularity largely dependant on the ladyluck of the drillbit, so I can accept all the recent dusters in Meuritania. I am fully aware of the drilling risk (which is why I spent so much time running a risked valuation model) and can accept/manage bad luck. Additionally, the fact that one Northern well was drilled in the completely wrong location and the other is gas coned due to it being cased at the wrong intervals is, IMHO, entirely the fault of the Woodies geos. What I find hard to accept is the fact that he can seemingly bullsh*t the shareholders without so much as a blink. It could have been just me who mis-interpreted what he said, but it would seem unlikely that so many of us mis-interpreted what he said!

Like I said before, I still believe in the story and see logic/rationality in what he's trying to do. I'd instantly sell out if that stops being the case. He has set up the framework going fwd. Now it comes down to execution. In addition, given current market sentiment towards Hardman, the last thing we need is for the market to gain the perception that our CEO is full of hot air and no action (shooting blanks so to speak). He has regularly spoken about delivering Tiof and Guyane by Q2 in recent times, I just hope that he can deliver on those words or we will all be feeling a little (very) stupid (again).


not having a go at you but many of the sp supporters are now a little ticked off at him.

wish i listened to myself and bailed at $2.40 lol?

No offense taken, and yes, you can add me to that undoubtedly growing list - although it must be said that mine's probably just a passing annoyance more than anything else. Nonetheless, his credibility in my book (not that it means anything to anyone else) is skating on very thin ice unless he starts to walk the talk.

Yap, agreed. I sold some in the 2.30s and 2.40s due to an enormous tax bill, but am kicking myself (just like yourself) for not selling the whole lot. Sentiment is probably at its worst right now, so no point selling now. Call me an optimist, but I see Tiof/Guyane/Uganda sliding towards us on a rainbow :)

Cheers mate,
618