SSN 0.00% 1.5¢ samson oil & gas limited

2015 - per the 10K, page-10

  1. 1,593 Posts.
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    Cmon,

    I agree the rate of growth in 2016 will decrease and unless new production is brought on line before July 2016 then it is likely (using decline curves) that 2017 production will decline. For many months though a common negative has been expressed here about declining production but if 2016 production is greater than 2015 production how is that a decline? Imo the opinions on SSN decline have been incorrect.

    A new investor may see that the increased production in 2016 comes at virtually no capex and should drive lower cost which ultimately should result in improved earnings and cash generation. It ensures the company can firstly survive (priority 1) and also plan for future growth under the cloud of uncertainty on broader market issues including low OP, market fears and also the state of capital markets.  

    I think the 2015 production result should be celebrated, the company has now successfully developed with its partners a new prospect and are able to generate cash in difficult conditions which is something many companies, particularly ASX O&G have been unable to do.  There are several other positives in the 10k and these have been largely overlooked.

    From a value perspective imo the current market cap is at a discount to company value and that can also be calculated on forward twelve month trailing production for the next 2 years using the Enercom forecast. If company does nothing but produce out the existing assets imo at some point the market will take notice, particularly if OP recovers above $60. This gives me some confidence that at these levels the MC can be supported by fundamentals.

    Imo a current challenge is to pick up on some of the points that @investor112  mentioned in the other thread to reinstall confidence and present a clearer picture of the future.  

    Cheers
 
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