banks sold down but.., page-10

re: anz chart longterm It is true that for a longggg time the banks have been in uptrend but I believe there is a strong arguement to say that they are now firmly in retrace (in the case of ANZ with a target of $14.)

How do I figure that and why would it do that?

Well if you look the attached chart you will see the last completed retrace that ANZ completed over a period in 1998 - 2000. This formed the base for the current pattern as ANZ has not retraced since. Each complete retrace forms a technically strong base for a new advance.

In June 02 the ANZ formed a peak followed by a series of lower highs and lower lows. Presuming this pattern is not broken (and it is reasonable it wont be - until it is) then it reasonable to also presume that the ANZ share price will continue to trend via a series of declining highs and lows to the eventual Fibonacci retracement target which is also the base (100%) for the short term fibonacci pattern who retracement target of $16.50 was overrun in Feb 03 indicating that this support would not hold despite short term recovery we are seeing now.

Sorry about the size of the chart but detail requires it...