For me, investing in Mirabela was a risk based on their ability to turn things around.
I didn’t buy much to begin with, but as things began to look more promising, I bought more.
In the end, more than I should have.
The investor presentations showing improved efficiencies, recovery rates and so on, gave me reason to believe.
The ex-noteholder story. They traded 400m for 98.2% of the shares… needed 44c to breakeven, so that means they must have a good reason to believe that will happen.
The 30M per 10% fall in BRL was another big factor. I believed that it made MBN better able to cope with falling nickel prices (although in truth, I hadn’t looked deeper than taking his word). Also, the new mine strategy, aimed at coping with the challenging nickel market.
I believed the new team would pull through and that the wider market had not forgiven MBN for past mistakes… hence the lack of interest. But that would come soon.
Then came the large investors buying in and all the talk of tree shakes and so on - it all added to my belief that MBN was a good investment. Hey, if they chuck 20M in, then surely they must know what they’re doing, right?
So along the way, every time the price held its ground I felt safer in putting more in - smug, even.
The N3 eclipse? I didn’t really believe that, but it did plant that greedy ‘what if’ thought in my head.
The Q1 with the big warnings on every page failed to deter me because, apart from the conspiracy theories on here, the price held.
This is where Paul Kelly’s ‘Dumb things’ starts playing.
When the price began to drop sharply, I bought MORE.
And all the while, all the hypebole in here only added to my beliefs that I’d made the right decisions.
When in fact what had happened was I’d drifted far away from my starting point and rationale for buying in the first place - worse, I’d begun to question less and less.
That’s an expensive lesson to learn.
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