Far Pre-Trade 16th October, page-29

B4 and Uncle I am surprised at you.

All I set out to do with my spreadsheet was to try the admittedly "novel" approach of actually trying to forecast what the market price would be under various assumptions rather than forever chasing broker valuations or what we think it should be. So far the price has pretty much stayed in the ranges forecast (currently being the upper end of forecast range, consistent with pre drill enthusiasm).

If you believe in aqua's numbers for the non Senegal assets fine, but that is not what the market is valuing them at now or at any time in the past. Suit yourself with the ignore button, but you are ignoring plain common sense in deference to the irrational.

And I would like to point out that in the Bellatrix 500mb 80% proven case at US$70 the spreadsheet returns 28c after the first three wells to which you can as stated previously add up to 40% in the takeover situation ie around 40c and whats pessimistic about that?? Its not my fault that the oil price has fallen, if you want to be optimistic just choose a higher oil price.

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/far...update.2613018/?post_id=16153978#.ViDcY3nouUk


pj