market on silde

I repeat what I have said in recent weeks. The 'correction' is what would have been termed a crash a decade ago. The dollar will fall further and Bernanke is playing for time with the inevitable interest rate rise. He won't hike it by more than 1 percent although the reality is that unless they up interest rates by 3% inflation is out of control and the conomy is screwed in the US which means here as well.

BHP will return to the below $20 a share mark and remain in that band of $20-$18 at worst for at least a year.

My caution on the banks still holds. The COmmonwealth and NAB are the worst. Westpac may have some redeeming features but their foray into uncharted waters in the residential mortgage market bodes ill for them. The ANZ has spread its enormous risk and will withstand the fall.

The NAB is in for a massive restructuring of its capital and operational bases.They are the worst of all performers. The Telstra sale will have to be abrted. But more importantly my forecast is for red flag for the Toll Holdings, Patricks Merger. Patricks the over valued company is about to cause a massive bellyache for the acquirer Toll. Virgin will feel the squeeze with Qantas joining hands with Air New Zealand and working with other major cariers and governments to choke out private competition means higher fares for Virgin or greater write downs and losses for them.

Organizations like Queensland Rail and Western Australian rail and their mergers are disasters waiting to be reported. The waste in that sector is the stuff Enrons are amde of.

Interesting to see will be the option a foreign party will exercise in its right to enter the register of one MacQuarie Bank through one of its major undertakings. Rupert Murdoch will fall ill. Very ill so too will his family companies.

Wendy Deng A Rose (Hanc3ock) by any other name