Fundamentally this company is grossly undervalued at around half it's nett cash. Business is more than free, you get the business and double your cash! great!
So what's holding things back:
- CEO's shares coming out of escrow end of November (around the 25th i believe?). Will he sell? Would be irrational but he could. If he knows what's best for him he wont as the first change in major shareholding market will depress the share price further. The only really logical things to do are ironically the things that all shareholders are looking for which is:
- Dividend or a buy back. I don't think a buy back seems likely although it is logical from a value perspective. Much more sense doing a buy back than an acquisition but the problem with the buy back is it reduces liquidity etc. A dividend would be preferable. He isn't going to be able to buy a business cheaper than the valuation of SBB unless he found another guy in china who wants to give away $2 for every $1 offered to him, oh and his business for free! Not likely in China of all places.
Announcement occurs of a real dividend of 25% of profit for FY 16 and this thing flies.
Mr Xu there is no point in this anymore just pay a meagre dividend and your 55% shareholding is back where it should be fair value around 15 cents or so.
Maybe he's waiting for it to come out of escrow so he can sit on his china bank share account and watch what happens when the dividend/buy back/company purchase announcement is made so he can watch the gyrations. Not really sure, you can still get dividends even though shares are in escrow? he's not holding off for that reason?