No Pear,
I'm suggesting that AnDy is a shorter, who does not hold, and whose only interest is in talking the stock down.
Also I'm actually saying (i.e. not suggesting), that AnDy is deducting the moisture and/or quality discount twice, to arrive at a figure that suggests a lower result than is being achieved.
I thinks its pretty clear, if all-in costs, including moisture/fe content discount, admin, interest, sustaining capital & toilet paper, etc., total $39 (soon to reduce to $36 if guidance is achieved, but lets stick with actual), and sale price per tonne at 62%fe is currently around $48, then they are currently netting cash of $9 per tonne. And due to the significant, non cash deductions available (Amort & Depn), most of what they are currently earning is not tax liable.
At $9 per tonne, x 165 mil tpa, that's cash of $1.485 Billion. If they achieve $36, that will be an extra $495 Mil.
(All amounts are in USD)
I'm not saying its a bed of roses, or that I wouldn't rather see a higher IO price, or less debt carry, but I don't see a train wreck either.
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)