1. Correct me if you can, but no assumed recovery rate has ever been mentioned by either Cairn or FAR for SNE. I think the only mention of a 30% recovery rate was by CN in using it as a rough assumed value to estimate a likely recoverable resource for FAN based on the oil in place figures. This was early on in the piece when a possible combined estimate of 600 - 700mb was mentioned by CN for SNE + FAN.
2. With respect to the reference you have quoted above, this is indeed what I was using in concluding that a lower recovery factor had been assumed for the the thinner sands. It is plain simple mathematics that if the they have discounted the overall recovery rate then the recovery rate used for the thinner sands must be lower than the very high recovery rate expected (and I assume used) for the blocky sands.
3. So at least some of the upside must lie in an upgrade in recovery from the thinner sands and given Cairn are already giving the blocky sands a very high recovery expectation it would appear that upside from these would depend on thicker than expected net pay and /or areal extent.
And Whisky, you continue to do me an injustice.
1. I don't see anything negative about my post above, let alone "everything" I write. Presumably as you have me on ignore you have just made assumptions that that is the case when it isn't.
2. With respect to your assertion that the original contingent resources never included the thin sands, it is obvious that the "thin" sands Cairn are referring to above have been included in their 330 2C estimates, otherwise why would they mention the overall recovery rate used being discounted for them.
3. The thin sands that FAR have been referring to are additional to the "thinner" sands Cairn referred to above, but no indication of the net pay attributable to these thin sands has ever been given by either company. I have in the past indicated that this could account for the difference in net pay attributed by FAR and Cairn for SNE (36m and 30m respectively) but that is pure speculation on my part - could be more or less.
(20min delay)