The Brains Trust - 2015, page-12208

There's been some discussion here around where commodities are in the cycle . It's self evident that overall things don't look good ,many are predicting the bear to go on for a couple of years yet . The only observation that I'll make is that bottoming and even some sort of recovery in the stocks can pre date bottoming in the commodity by up to 12 months.

You see the same thing in markets . Once everyone has decided that a bottom might be in they go to buy a few stocks and see that someone else has already got the cream . So imo if you think a recovery in commodities is 12 months out now is the time to be looking at niche plays in whatever commodity has your interest.

As far as gold goes even if you accept that the GP could be headed lower ,below 1000USD , I really doubt that the better gold stocks will revisit their lows in the cycle.

I'm seeing rays of hope in commodity stocks presently , and oilers for instance ,but I'm not definitive that a bottom is in in the stocks just that it looks like it could be . I'm hopeful that even if the POO comes off up to another $10 or so you're not going to see the relative carnage in the stocks now . Though obviously some will fall by the wayside. But some of the stronger ones are already taking accretive positions.

In many ways the bad news in most commodity plays is priced in . But of course recovery processes can take some time to evolve and play out