IMS (ASX) Margins increasing?

Originally posted by longshot41 ↑

Benj, I'm hoping your calculator is way out because my numbers are below.....

"So we can assume $3.5 plus another say $8 mil to be conservative and we should have $11.5 mil actual EBITDA (or $15.5 underlying) on turnover of around $60 mil.

Just consider that $15.5 mil could have been delivered if they were thinking of the short term which is a tripling of EBITDA from last FY of $5.09 mil. But they don't worry about the short term as they are building a global company carefully and on their terms.

So $11.5 mil x 0.7 = $8,050 mil NPAT /392 mil shares = 2.1 EPS x 26 = 54c SP

Next FY is tough to guess but I recon it will be $20 mil conservatively on turnover of $120 mil, up from around $60-65 mil this FY.

$20 mil x 0.7 = $14 mil NPAT/392 mil shares = 3.6c EPS x 26 = 94c"

I'm working off actual estimated NPAT figures and I get 2.1c EPS this FY and 3.6c EPS next FY with 30c SP nowhere near the mark champion. And this is with a multiple of 26 which can be as high as 40 with growth tech stocks or higher.

Can you please review my numbers and perhaps some of our mates chime in to agree on some EPS likelhoods. Always happy to stand corrected but I'm hoping 54c & 94c is closer to the mark.

Nice run to new 37c high today with big volume.

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Remember there is a fair difference between underlying and reported EBITDA and we cannot get these two mixed up. If we keep margins the same as they were in FY15, then the difference between $9.9M EBITDA (underlying) and the $5.09 EBITDA (reported) = $4.8M which equates to one off costs. I simply went on the assumption that it will be a similar year this year on margins and one offs based on revenues (I could be very much out on that front) so I'm applying similar metrics on FY16 which meant on EBITDA of $15M (underlying) will see a reported EBITDA of ~$7.7M (yes I acknowledge that one offs could be a lot lower and probably will be driving reported EBITDA higher). On $7.7M reported EBITDA we will se ~$5M in NPAT.

So for the NPAT to rise way past $5M and closer to $10M, the one offs have to be less than FY15 of $4.8M, which is doable but highly unlikely as we have seen and probably will see further acquisitions.