The prevailing commentary, on this site, in the media and among analysts is now moving heavily against SGH. Most share price targets have been revised down. For instance (today, alone):
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
| 1 |
Broker
|
Was
|
Now
|
DeltaDown
|
Was
|
Now
|
Updated
|
| 2 |
Morgans
|
|
|
|
Add
|
Hold
|
27/11/15
|
| 3 |
Macquarie
|
4.59
|
1.00
|
78%
|
Out Perform
|
Under Perform
|
27/11/15
|
| 4 |
UBS
|
2.80
|
0.90
|
67%
|
|
|
27/11/15
|
| 5 |
Deutsche Bank
|
3.35
|
1.65
|
51%
|
Buy
|
Hold
|
27/11/15
|
| 6 |
Average
|
3.58
|
1.18
|
67%
|
|
|
|
| 7 |
median
|
3.35
|
1.00
|
70%
|
|
|
27/11/15
|
There are other brokers, so it would be interesting to see what their PT updates /figures are now showing, so the above chart may well change with some further information forthcoming.
As for risk of impairments or downgrades, with the UK announcements, clear slower than earlier anticipated turnaround /migration /integration in the UK, -ve operating cashflow for the first half, the risk is both to the near term, being H16 and to the full term, F16, as well as now guidance into F17. Impairments could well now follow in which case then, yes, they would further impact against Equity in the Balance Sheet and push the gearing ratio (which SGH themselves have set as their shining beacon at the end of the jetty, across the bay from where Gatsby was standing) out well beyond their preferred range of 30 - 40, their F15 reality of 43.4, my own recently calculate d/posted 47.8 current time estimate, and quite likely well beyond this.
Now, why SGH, the Board and especially the seasoned members of the Board have allowed the Company to continue trading without taking a trading halt in order to update, properly clarify and /or to properly reassure shareholders is beyond explanation. But then again, so too was the fact that they traded yesterday for nearly 2 hours before going into a trading halt in reference to a price sensitive announcement (both according to their own assessment of the matter and /or according to ASX Listing Rules) and by the reality of what's happened since, even though the announced changes by Chanceller Osbourne were known by 11.33pm on Wednesday evening which was the time at which Osbourne started speaking in the House of Commons on his Autumn Outlook and Spending Update (in essence, his 1/2 year budget update).
Clearly Investor Relations really doesn't know how to manage a listed company, especially one operating in several different time zones, and across the globe. They have really let everyone down, the Company, their Board, their senior management, and most especially, their shareholders. Likewise, the Company Secretary (formerly also the CFO) who has overall governance, compliance and disclosure responsibility and still does until Moana Weir takes over in January.
Then again, the Board also has some responsibility in all this especially with 70.3M shares currently traded on the ASX and a further 8.7M on Chi-X. That's 79M shares in total with 3 hours of trading still to go, or 22.3% of the total issued share base, or 56% of the share base, outside of the most recently published Top 20.
For anyone therefore to suggest that the Top 20 has not itself significantly changed in these last 3 days would itself be a major under statement.
