A analyst on the ABC midday News was saying, page-16

the thing i ve found amusing during the entire 2002-2015 farce is how so many supposedly sophisticated business people put all their chips on chinese forward estimates

this is an economy known for
a) spinning more than telling facts, and
b) with almost no recent experience in a falling market, a contracting economic situation or in market forces or in managing same

why anyone would think chinese are any better any knowing the future than we are is baffling. people keep conflating wealth with knowledge and expertise - rather than simple demographics

bhp and the rest i think have overshot massively - where we are now doesnt even begin to show us where iron ore plunges too if im correct

everyone is hanging their hat on the idea that global steel demand would effectively stall - ie that the current 850-900mt will now hold steady for several years

i think its actually goign to fall back to something like 750Mt - and when that happens iron ore will fall in a 3-5 year price rut of $us15-25/t.


oil is also affected by the fall in heavy machinery consumption and diesel in china - but the shale oil market is a private sector marketplace that will respond to price falls the way chinese soes wont to iron ore

so i see oil recovering better.