In reply to the last 2 or 3 posts, event picking is not my forte, its not something I aim to do, all that I know is that the geometric growth for the bull market has expired and its well and truly busted and that the medium term cycle turned down late April.
All I can tell you with certainty is that the medium term cycle is down and will not turn up until late 2009, however the mid point is December 2007 and would normally be turning point of equal significance to the main timing points.
Every 4th year tends to see a average decline of 27%, if the markets are to do this and bottom in October we are looking at just above 8000 on the dow.
They would say that 2007 will be a bad year as that’s 20 years from 1987… things don’t work like that unfortunately.
I am still working on ways to predicts the whole lot accurately, so in reply to your posts all that I can say with certainty is that the medium term trend is now done, putting 2 and 2 together I would say a low in late September early October this year…. Strong bounce and probably a secondary low late 2007.
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