Near Term Revenue

So the broker report, with regards to India, estimates the Coldry plant will be built and producing 225 KTpa by 2017, followed by Matmor's completion (mid 2017) with a production rate of 8 KTpa. Using their low-end estimates that means both plants would produce a gross annual margin for ECT of...

Coldry: $9.5 million
Matmor: $1.1 million

They estimate the Matmor plant to be ramped up to full capacity of 200 KTpa by 2020, meaning a margin of $28 million per annum.

Okay, it's four years away, but some of us are patient. So for each new combined Coldry/Matmor, ECT will be harvesting $40 million gross.

Moving back home, ECT state “Since the closure of the Energy Brix brown coal briquette plant in Morwell Victoria last year, ECT has been approached by several companies seeking alternative sources of fuel to replace the rapidly dwindling supply of briquettes.”

As we know, our JV partners, Mecrus, were operating the Energy Brix factory when it closed, and the final year's orders were in the region of 180,000 tonne. Working on similar margins that would equate to $7.5 million worth of Coldry.

“In addition, the Company has also received commentary from key Victoria based consumers and experts in the market indicating that alternative supplies of energy such as natural gas, LPG and black coal, are cost prohibitive due to their high capital and operational cost, compared to locally available de-watered brown coal, leading many end users to rethink their fuel-supply switching plans and presenting a potential opportunity for Coldry.”

A major Energy Brix' customer was Murray Goulburn, one of Australia's largest dairy exporters, who has since converted some boiler power-source to gas (other customers have adopted biomass). Mecrus still operate the steam plants at a number of manufacturing sites owned by Murray Goulburn, and one can only assume words have been had between senior management regarding our upcoming supply of reasonably priced Coldry pellets.

Loy Yang power station, also, is a no-brainer. Importing a test load of BC briquettes from Germany. Seriously?

If ECT, with the help of Mecrus, can rekindle the old customer supply chain with a personally-tweeked pellet far superior to the old briquettes, then a solid, local revenue stream in the $10+ million per annum is easily achievable. IMO

Happy to be corrected.


http://www.mecrus.com.au/what-we-do-energy.htm
http://www.latrobevalleyexpress.com...ers-face-stand-down-amid-contractual-dispute/
http://abid.co/pdf/n/4872
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ESI&E=ASX&N=434511