Well it is all about the time frame and stops. Shorting for 2 days is different to shorting for 2 months or years which would be suicide.
2% down is the same as 2% up.
I am a relative newcomer to gold but with such a constant trader (24 hours) I can't see why you can't just pick a moving average and stay on the correct side of it all the time via automatic stops etc ... ride up and down and with almost zero risk.
Predicting what it might or might do seems unnecessary.
Obviously if it was that easy, everyone would be doing it :)
