Why... El Nino weather... no grass... no feed... no milk.. no revenue... no exports.. no EBIT to forecast
The rate of dairy conversions in Canterbury could also have a negative effect on Coast farmers this El Nino. "Last time we whipped over and got hay and things like that to feed the cows because there wasn't as much grass... the availability of extra feed and grazing is certainly down on what it was."
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New Zealand is in the grip of an El Nino weather pattern - nearly as strong as the "super El Nino" which ravaged the West Coast in 1997-98.
The current El Nino could already be classed as "strong" and could bring more rain than usual to the Coast over the coming three months, said NIWA principal climate scientist Dr Brett Mullan.
Scientists used a variety of information to determine how strong an El Nino was, he said. Data showed the current El Nino had strengthened and was now ranked nearly as highly as the "super El Ninos" of 1982-83 and 1997-98.
The consequences of an El Nino for New Zealand were less predictable than other areas, but NIWA expected a high likelihood of stronger than normal westerlies during summer, Dr Mullan said.
There was above average rainfall on the West Coast during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 summers. NIWA data showed some areas of the Coast received around 180 per cent of their normal rainfall during the 1997-98 summer.
Federated Farmers national board member and West Coast dairy farmer Katie Milne said farmers, the group most adversely affected by El Ninos, wouldn't know what the current El Nino had in store until it actually happened."If it moves 50 miles north or south... it could be quite different for us than the previous one."
"If it moves 50 miles north or south... it could be quite different for us than the previous one."
However, it was crucial for farmers to be prepared for the worst -- putting their heads in the sand was not a good approach, she said.
"One of the things I've said to people is, if you're new to an area and don't know what to expect, try and get hold of someone who's been through one."
Farmers might have to stand their cows off more frequently than in previous years. It was worth doing, she said.
"It's a little bit of uncomfortableness for the cows at the time, but it's a lot more uncomfortable if you go back in your next grazing round and there's 50 per cent less grass there than what you thought because they pugged it."
Some farmers might also be forced to make the decision to cull cows early, and some might move to once-a-day milking.
"We have all learnt from the previous experiences, and it is about protecting your pasture as much as you can. It might not be fun but it's manageable."
Mental wellbeing
During the 1997-98 El Nino, farming communities held frequent get-togethers to keep up morale.
Ms Milne encouraged farmers to attend discussion groups and talk through their problems with other farmers. It was at such events farmers realised they weren't alone, she said.
"Everyone's in the same pile of poo."
If this El Nino was anything like it was in 1997-98, sunshine would be hard to come by, she said.
"The fine days weren't even that fine, they were just cloudy."
People got essential vitamins from exposure to the sun. "You're affected chemically and you don't even know you are."
In 1997-98, some Coast farmers would drive over one of the passes to Canterbury for a dose of sunshine, Ms Milne said. They would take a sandwich, sit in the sun for a couple of hours then drive back. The rate of dairy conversions in Canterbury could also have a negative effect on Coast farmers this El Nino. "Last time we whipped over and got hay and things like that to feed the cows because there wasn't as much grass... the availability of extra feed and grazing is certainly down on what it was."
The Ministry for Primary Industries has published a brochure containing practical advice for farmers and growers on how to prepare for El Nino conditions. Primary Industries minister Nathan Guy said it focused mostly on farming in dry conditions.
"This [El Nino] would not be good for those on the east coast of the South Island who have had a very dry 12 months already and are still officially in drought. That's why it is important to plan and start preparing now."
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