Gold, page-3292

AUDUSD Monthly



AUDUSD Weekly

Moving forward to 2016, the fundamentals for a recovery in Oz economy is probably tepid at best as I can't see a major stimulus coming from the Chinese. If you believe the article I posted AU will continue the down trend on the monthly eventually.

It is forming a base currently so the possibility I think is stack against a reversal to the upside. If price starts to break from the resistance away from the highlight block, it will dip into another overhead block but when it does that then you can see a slow grind up. It will athen demonstrate the worst is over with the highlight block acting a good support. If the break is on the support then logically there is an anchor for price to test the next support.

It is very difficult to know what happens when price is in a tight sideway range lasting 6 months. We can only study recent past with the higher block that also took about 6 months before another leg down to the current sideway.

It is from this perspective I am comfortable in holding the higher margin/lower cost producers. Another leg down in AU will usually reflect more selling in gold in a very simplistic view so there is cushioning effect. With this down trend I have decided since last year that it is better to pick the strongest producers in the sector rather than bottom pick the weaker peers because the odds of a trend reversal is not that straight forward and can take years. Ultimate POG top to current low is 4 years in the making and there are still no signs of any revival of fortunes. Meantime there were a few prominent sucker bear rallies that sucked in the quick draw optimist.

And here I sit focusing too much attention on a beaten up sector and took my eyes off the next boom, food and supplement markets.

BTW Rise I don't know much about FRM, quick glance has something to do with eggs? Beautiful charts so I may have to do some research in a sector I know nothing about beside the Chinese effect! CCF is something on green energy and if so even with a good looking chart I will remain skeptical on this fad. The past week my eyes are watering on A2M and I don't want to be the Johnny come lately buying from the profit takers only to realise I bought from the top so reluctantly I am waiting for a decent pullback. That is what I said on BAL and there was a 1 minute stop at the station while I was still buying my platform ticket then it was "Toot Toot" and I saw the back of the train. This one is a turbo charged diesel Ferarri! All very sad but I wished the holders well!