Fair value $4.74 per share, page-34

When these sensitivity tables are put together they say effect on profit because that's easier to explain and also fits in with accounting disclosures.

If you are going to do this sort of analysis, it would be more appropriate to start with the underlying EBIT figures for each of the four pillars (most vals do not sue NPAT). If you start with $11.9B rather than $6.4B it is clear why the Company is $17 not $4.


Even if net profit were down significantly, planned exploration expenditure is around $8B... down from $11B
That's $3B of discretionary revenue which wipes out your calculation.
Add that $3B back on to the $1.7B you calculated and what's the new price?

Cut the dividend and what's the new price?

This is not to mention that BHP IO unit costs were expected to fall US$16/T, add that back on and what's the new price?

Clearly, your analysis needs some rigor, but the thumbs up on the post say more than real analysis ever could....