Sky Biz this morning., page-89

Mayhem,

Two years ago the poo was much higher and I guess the Phoenix/Roc program was a lot more enticing than what we have now - two non-commercial successes, a dud poo getting worse, and uncertainty about the forward drilling program and no doubt a fair bit of anxiety about whether any future success in the area could actually be commercial on tomorrow's poo.

Add to that the obvious fact that share prices do not just reflect players perception of value, they also reflect market dynamics. Atm it would seem obvious to me that a lot will want out post Roc, and also with the poo, but it is difficult to see why there would be buyers atm - except as bargain hunters, many of which will only be buying at a price at which they expect they can make a quick and easy 10% or more when the dust (or condensate I this case) settles.

And folk there is little management can do, done all the right moves imho, we just have to accept that this is the harsh reality at the speculative end of the oil game.

Share prices always overshoot, both ways. My bet is this is near the low, but given the poo we might just bounce around the low for a long time.

I'd rather see my shares stay this low than see a Saudi-Iranian war, which would surely send the poo soaring.

EL