BHP

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$42.06 bhp group limited

Fair value $47.40 per share, page-80

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pslally

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12/01/16

02:58

Post #: 16774453
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Originally posted by Lanciano ↑

Reply to Psally on 7 Jan 16 quoting Buffet and Graham and others.
Those old days are over sorry to say.
I am a firm believer that Buffet made most of his fortune from luck rather than skill.
That is, just happened to be in the market long term in the past 40 or so years where generally speaking the world had unprecedented growth and global inflation that caused all asset classes (including shares) to increase in value. Also, the ramp up of globalisation and outsourcing labour to third world countries by US multinationals from 1960 onwards also contributed to unprecedented profits that will be hard to repeat in the future.
The next 20 years will result in global deflation (or stagflation at best) due to massive debts by govts and householders. This will result in limited growth in assets such as shares. Just look at the Japan situation where they have had no growth in the past 30 years because of their unwinding of asset prices due to develeraging from unsustainable debt by govt. And Japan is in a better position than say USA, Europe and not yet Australia because Japan householders are net savers and therefore are able to buy Japan Govt Bonds.

Also, the past 40 years has seen short term volatility in the sharemarket because investors (both retail and wholesale) were mainly long term investors.
The internet has now caused many retailers to treat ASX as a casino (including a lot of hotcopper participants) where they fool themselves that a lucky profit is due to skill rather than just luck.
You then add the hedge funds and short sellers and high frequency traders and most of the seasoned old timers investors such as myself quickly realise that long term investing in the ASX is no longer a sound investment choice.
The best financial advice I can give to novice investors (note I said investors and not traders) is to try and be rational when investing in ASX. Buy based on sound financial, management and industry fundamentals. Sell when you have made a profit of say 20 to 40%.
Remember, the secret to investing is controlling your psychological behaviour. Never believe that you are smarter than the market, for Mr market is always smarter.

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Warren Buffett made US $66.7 billion by getting lucky over 60 years.

What have you been smoking?

How many billions have you made so far based on your amazing investing skills?

I will keep an eye on the Forbes world's richest people list for your name while I wait for BHP share price to increase over the next 30 years.

BHP Price at posting: $15.55 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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(20min delay)
Last $42.06		Change -0.930(2.16%)		Mkt cap ! $213.4B

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$42.33	$42.50	$41.94	$609.8M	14.57M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	5770	$42.05

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$42.11	2807	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
3	5770	42.050
2	534	42.030
1	3318	42.020
1	4	42.010
19	15912	42.000

Price($)	Vol.	No.
42.180	1000	1
42.200	300	1
42.240	8911	2
42.250	1866	2
42.260	32	3

Last trade - 16.10pm 18/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

BHP (ASX) Chart

Fair value $47.40 per share, page-80

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