Re:
“I'm expecting the heart of this field to be commercial on its own with around 500 Mmbo, it had 330 Mmbbls 2C before testing without the thin sands, any oil found in the outlying thinner sands and Bellatrix etc to be a bonus...” (My bolding)
Still out on your own with that one Whisky, please don’t state things as fact when you have provided no evidence to support them and plenty of evidence has been provided already on HC to the contrary.
In fact in the link below you stated you were looking for such evidence and I am still waiting:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann...658869/page-119?post_id=16597458#.Vp2cK1Ipp0w
Here are just some of the links which provide evidence to the contrary:
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann...lling-offshore-senegal.2632725/#post-16583293
Even LTA (who had belted me previously) comes out in my support on this one (16745204).
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Now I do agree with most of what Whisky says in his posts, but on this point I’m persisting because his popularity lends credibility and the inclusion of the thin sands in the original 2c is highly relevant in terms of possible increases in the original 2c estimates. And as per evidence above, Cairn have plainly indicated that they were included, we just don’t know in what proportion. Only if the proportion they have attributed is close to zero will Whisky’s statement stand up and that seems unlikely as they did seem to make up nearly half the net pay at SNE1 (albeit with lower assumed recovery factors) and that is quite apart from what may have been assumed for their more peripheral contribution.
And with the SNE2 DSTs apparently suggesting a practical reduction in net pay for the thin sands, that makes the total net pay for the blocky sands all the more important, and so far Cairn have not told us that (nor for that matter have they told us the total potential net pay for the thin sands either). At least not yet – deliberately posted before CNE operational update due within hours and not holding my breath for clarification of net pay.
pj
(20min delay)