ftse falling... poor amp, page-58

re: amp revisited Interesting to look back on some earlier postings, to see how things have eventuated.

Since discussing AMP at length in mid-March:
1)
the UK operations will be spun-out, wrung out, or hung out, before year's end;
2)
a recapitalisation of AMP is currently taking place (although the retail component is now set to fail);
3)
the indicative recapitalisation was $5.50 (higher than my earlier mooted $4.75 figure of 12th March, but closer to the current trading range of $5.05 -5.25);
4)
Treasurer Costello is watching the emerging drama quite intently (and 4-Pillars may well still be in for a shaking down); and
5)
The NAB could well be looking again at its wealth management growth strategy, now that MLC (for the first time in recent, and medium, memory) has dropped out of the Top 10 managers listing, published by Assirt in its quarterly review of funds management flows.

Mind you, the AMP, and Colonial First State /CBA, both failed to make the same list.

Further afield, the CBA /Colonial grouping accounted for 19.44% of all retail assets under management, at 31st March 2003, whilst NAB /MLC accounted for 13.84%, AMP for 11.68%, ING /ANZ for 11.33%, BT /WBC for 10.14%, and AXA for 5.9%.

With its UK ambitions effectively grounded for the time being, and with the forthcoming decoupling of Pearl (et al), the National could well again be keeping an eye out for the AMP - if not as an acquisition target, then as a vulture target (ie: targetting funds' flows, and enticing AMP's customers away from AMP).

Dismemberment of AMP, therefore, is likely to continue, as the secondary collapse in share price support was led on Tuesday, and again yesterday, by selling orders (and redemptions) from out of Asia.

The AMP is quite sick at the moment, and it is likely to require a 4-Pillars measure of support unless management can stop the redemptions flow, restore shareholder confidence, and assure the markets that all of the bad news has now been disclosed. And all this is still before the shareholders revolt further, as this morning's headline and Article in The Australian suggests:

"AMP braces for mutiny".