Is ASIC is the real problem here, not AZZ?, page-33

Finally found the going price of 1P reserves in the Permian of which AZZ has 6,764mboe as at 30 June 2015 = 6,746,000 boe.

Considering all Permian deals, the Midland basin of the Permian has seen slightly higher 1P reserve valuations recently, bringing the play average up from $13 per 1P (proven) boe of reserve to nearly $18. By contrast, the IHS report said, Eagle Ford 1P reserves have seen recent valuations closer to $15/boe. The “Permian Premium” indicates the upside expected from the play, as productivity continues to increase.

Based on a range of $13 per boe - $18boe, thats a price of US$88M - $122M.
Assuming that tax and the USD to AUD conversion is equal that gives us AUD$88-AUD$122
less the $48M notes is $40M to $74M
thats a share price of between $0.17 - $0.31

Assuming no tax (if AZZ could sell BBEP shares and offset the losses - I am no tax expert, so no idea if this is possible)
with AUD conversion of 0.70 gives us AUD$125-AUD$174
less the $48M notes is $85M to $126M
thats a share price of between $0.35 - $0.53

Based on this article, there is evidence to suggest a deal for between US$88 and $122 for the AZZ assets. Depending on the tax payable on the sale, AZZ could be worth between $0.17 and $0.53 (even with the depressed price of oil - article was written on 08/01/15)
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Scenario 2 - there is no deal

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5
0			6 Months
1		31/03/2015	30/06/2015	30/09/2015	31/12/2015
2	Amounts ($000s)	Actual	Actual	Actual	Forecast
3	Cash	$8,972	$6,998	$4,405	$2,208

Based on historical drawdown and no change to working capital (which indicates trade payables are greater than receivables) AZZ's quarterly statement due this week should show us a cash position of $2.2M as at 31 December 2015.

Based on its historical cash burn, it runs out of cash before the 31st of March 2015 when the notes are due.
The most likely result is voluntary administration under this scenario.
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It is ridiculous that shareholders have no idea where we stand, but on Friday AZZ will need to release the quarterly report. With only a deal being able to save this from voluntary administration, I will be paying very close attention to the wording and depth in regards to the sale (or 'deal').
If this is just brushed under the carpet it will be pretty obvious that we are heading for scenario 2 - especially with AZZ's history of no news meaning bad news.

This week will tell us a lot - bring on Friday!