The Big Short

morning all,

I have watched the movie recently - and, I kept thinking of AJX in several ways. Thought it might be of interest to some.

These were some of the points I related to.

A few of the early bettors in the Swaps were 100% convinced that the US housing market was going to collapse - certainly without illegal intervention.

They knew it had to happen - so, they invested with high conviction --------- ring any bells? However, - when the numbers started to show - when the signs began to light up --------- their swaps didn't change in price -

now, the reasons were different for the stall in movement - different to the ?? stall in AJX's movement - but, what struck me of interest was the psychological pressure that came to bear on those people ------------ very similar to what I see often displayed on this forum about the emotional response to AJX response to some news etc..

So - we see the pressure building - in our case - in AJX - the business just keeps growing - things keep happening - including things like this morning's email - which - I think is a really big deal -------------- but, often we just get a cent or two up - and, than back down again by afternoon. Seemingly defying logic.

Of course - in the movie - and, the true story - all hell breaks loose eventually ----------- but, if you look at the time frames ----- it didn't happen instantly - far from it - it happened over months and months.

Of course once the collapse started - it gathered mass and momentum like a snowball.

If AJX pressure keeps building and the wheels stay on - it should go the same way - agonizingly slow build - far slower than we feel inside as we are close enough to the company and keep a finger on the pulse.

We talk to people - they say 'who the hell is Alexium' - in the movie - they said 'I didn't know there was a market based on housing?'

Then - all of a sudden - in the movie - mortgage defaults began to rise - but, nothing much happened. In AJX - the military was making friendly noises - then, we got the award -- but, nothing much happened (in fact, our SP went down in the end) --

then, in the movie more things happened and eventually, the slide began - with AJX - we will get signs though this quarter ------ will much happen with the SP? ------ who knows - but, I can't see it at 4 bucks for a couple or few months -- but, when the half report comes in - that will be a signal.
By the time the full year (Aussie FY) report comes in - we will have an enormous lift in revenue from military alone - plus who knows what else --------- it WILL show on the balance sheet - because it is accrual -
so - by that stage I expect that the signs will be that strong that it can't be overlooked -------- however, how much that shifts the SP??? who knows?

So - just like the Swap bettors - we sit and watch the weather brewing strongly - but, the winds are light - waiting for the raging gale that will rain down dollars on us.

And note that in the Swap story - there was enormous pressure on some of them to sell out - right at the point where they were about to make massive fortunes ------ incredible pressure - for a whole variety of sources ----------- ring any bells again?

Patience, guts and determination are of course the key -- those guys in the story had the race well and truly won when they place their bets - as do we already (barring a left field event) - the only difference is that in the Big Short - they had to pay their insurance premiums - whereas - all we have to do is sit tight and be quiet and let it happen.

Pity that isn't easy for some.

Of course - the other point that came up strongly is the absolute skullduggery of Wall Street ------------------ hmmm, do we really want to be in that?

Have a great day all

Pinto