Ok, I know one of your biggest issues around BDR is the opaqueness of the details surrounding their cashflows and this is something I am willing to agree with you on. But simply saying something doesn't add up but not making an effort to delve deeper into the issues is just as myopic as the views you feel some holders may have.
I am going to attempt to outline some things that I think contribute to the whole cashflow debate from the information we have available and am happy to be corrected (I am willing to admit I am still a pretty new investor). I think some of these have been mentioned before.
Yes we all know that the BRL has been falling and correspondingly the BRL Gold price has been rising. However Brazil has also been suffering rampant inflation.
If you look at cash costs over all of 2015 they have been fairly consistent. They were in the 800's when producing 30k ounces and decreasing to 600's for 40k ounces. This means that overall cash costs have been approx. $24,000,000 each quarter all year. This suggests there has been no change over the year, despite the movement in currency. You can draw from this a number of alternative conclusions. 1. You could choose to look at it that maybe 90% of BDR's costs aren't in BRL as we are told. 2. Maybe inflation to a large degree is offsetting any benefit from currency (assuming BDR's costs are inflation linked)
In addition to this during the last quarter $5m USD was paid to Santander and $2.4m was paid to MACA. This is a considerable component of all BDR's outgoing and there is no currency bonus to be had here as the debt is USD denominated.
But at the end of the day what does this really tell us. The two things that will (and have been driving the BDR share price) are ounces produced (and thus AISC) and USD gold price.
Now from a lot of peoples perspectives here both of these things are heading in the right direction, more "profitable ounces" and higher gold price, and with it optimism.
Maybe there is some shady accounting going on - as I said I am not an expert - but I think USD POG and consistent profitable production are the most important things moving forward
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