BDR 0.00% 6.5¢ beadell resources limited

Ann: Investor Presentation - January 2016, page-32

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    Thanks for having a crack at the question but let's look at what you are saying from a logical consistency point of view.

    First you state that one of the possible reasons for why the company has not been able to gain traction is the rising rate of inflation in Brazil and then you claim there are only two things that have been driving the share price, the US gold price and AISC. If your argument about inflation is correct it surely then feeds into the company's "real" AISC numbers and represents a continuing headwind going forward....and if so why wouldn't the company make the market aware of this dynamic? From the time I've been looking at BDR its costs have always looked reasonably attractive but it never seems to bare out into a growing cash pile. Brazil is one of the most exposed nations to currency devaluation due its dependence on commodities as a large source of foreign exchange so this increasing inflation metric is unlikely to change in the medium term. In the last 4 years inflation has almost doubled from about 5% (see first chart) and is showing no sign of slowing (and these are official statistics, the reality could be worse). A lot of people here are rooting for a big market meltdown to send the price of gold shooting up (not me I'm pretty happy with the status quo for the Aussie gold producers I own and I'd prefer a stable market in which to own and trade shares). You'd better be careful for what you wish for. If things get really, really bad certain exposed nations might find themselves in situations involving rampant inflation and assuming your theory is correct that would be a disaster especially if they started introducing currency controls and blocked the exit of hard currencies and gold from the country. The inflation rate in Brazil averaged 378% from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6,821% in April of 1990 and a record low of 1.65% in December of 1998 (see second chart below). Better hope your inflation theory is not the cause of BDR's problems. So just a thought. When weighing the risks and rewards on BDR it might be wise to keep a few of these factors in mind, no matter how unlikely they might currently seem. Eshmun

    Brazilian inflation 5years.PNG Brazilian inflation max.PNG
 
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