Im still cautious, page-25

Then you actually are agreeing because you have said the poo at $30 for 6 months which is the point I was making - if we see the poo spike now say above $40 then the shalers/oilers cop a break - I see even Chesapeake had a big jump overnight in its sp and it has always been the canary in the coal mine.

This is a race between them and the rest of the world as they are higher cost producers - its quite literally who can outlast - the US oilers know if they can hold on they'll break opec if it keeps up the hardline - the saudis know if the US shalers survive they will grow and the Russians have nothing but oil to sell.

My hunch is that what is going on is a whisper campaign to lift the poo to get the shalers over the line for Feb and it will put pressure back on the saudis who have opec breathing down their neck to cut supply.

Impossible to read how Feb will play out know - if the Saudis don't manage to put enough pressure on the US oilers (shalers and strippers) then I imagine them looking at another 6 months might just force them to the table with Russia BUT if they do then both Russia & the Saudis will still want to hold the poo lower or else they will face increasing competition in the international market from America who can now export and they will keep growing their production if given the chance..

We've got some volatility ahead yet but the chatter is providing support.