Excelsior Gold (EXG) 11.5c
The Kalgoorlie gold hopeful tracks its shares against the Brent Cook Life Cycle, which graphs the typical share movement of a resource junior from exploration to development.
Brent Cook, seeing you asked, is a well-known northern hemisphere rock kicker and investment guru.
According to the Utah University alumnus, valuations surge in the pre discovery phase, only to sag and enter an orphan period as the speculators quit. The shares then revive in the development/start up phase as institutions pile into the play.
Excelsior’s share movements neatly fit the template, having gained favour on first output from its open pit Kalgoorlie North Gold Project
Size wise, KNGP is no Super Pit. But with the Aussie dollar and production costs (including diesel) moving favourably, lustrous gold plays can come in small packages.
Excelsior chief David Hamlyn says KNGP’s attraction lies in its proximity to Norton Gold’s underused Paddington mill down the road.
Exelsior has struck a short term deal to supply the mill (now owned by China’s Zijin Mining) with 650,000 tonnes of ore.
“Our dirt makes the same margin for them as their low grade stuff,’’ Hamlyn says.
“It makes economic sense for them to treat it and it makes economic sense for us to supply it.’’
With a skinny complement of 15 staff, Excelsior started mining in November, with a “base case” calendar year target of 29,000 ounces.
A planned underground expansion could expand this to 50,000oz.
Current reserves of 296,000oz won’t exactly have Newcrest or the nearby Northern Star quaking in their Blundstones, but Hamlyn is confident that a modest $1m exploration effort will unearth further riches across 22 target areas on the tenement (only seven have been tapped so far).
On numbers spied on the back of a Palace Hotel coaster, 40,000oz would generate annual free cash flow of $12m, based on $A400/oz of all-in costs.
We hazard a spec buy.
EXG Price at posting:
13.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
