I do. Virtually none but just to prevent a little disappointment perhaps 10%.
Why 10%.
Historically it has been reported that between 80 and 90% of cases are successful. That success rate is not total WIP some of those cases that do not succeed contribute to the 80-90% but not to WIP as no WIP was booked or very little WIP booked as revenue.
We also need to keep in mind that Slater took the knife to UK WIP in the FY15 annual report. They have already gone through a round of ultra-conservative WIP booking in realtion to that years acquistions. However, as a consequence we did see an upward revision of intangibles.
Another matter to think about is the new method for valuing WIP cannot impact the past. The past is the past, it is already recorded as revenue. So an impairment of WIP would be because we now don't believe it is recoverable not because of a new measuring method.
It is how they value goodwill with the new methodology where the biggest impact will be I feel, not necessarily WIP.
When the figures do come out they will need to be carefully understood. Hopefully they come with a clear investor explanation pack. It is likely there will be a negative movement in WIP recorded on the revenue line (already flagged -GBP20m EBITDA). Assuming cases taken on as the year progresses use a new methodology for revenue recognition then there may be a negative impact - old WIP washing out as billed revenue and new WIP doesn't replace it (due to measuring method).
At the end of the day all of this is accounting treatment. Nothing changes what it costs to run a case and the billed revenue from settlement.
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