call it what you like. short or whatever. when berney gave us that pause idea last week i really do believe it was political. i have read a lot over the weekend and that seems to be the consensus, although not in so many words using the word political.
the fed, according to one analyst, which i posted on sun ? was adamant the fed has never in it's history stopped raising without bringing on pain.
what i saw last week was huge buying by institutions that had pulled out a bit o cash and had to get back in big time long termish. rate rises in usa this side of nov are now almost certainly not on politically. bar some catastrophic news on the us economy, that is.
rate rises expected in europe, oz and uk will give the us dollar a welcome drop and a welcome help to us exports and disadvantage to imports.
gold is knackered but still interesting enough for some.
bush wants as much help as he can for those nov elections. he will never be president again but the republicans need as much help as they can get. bush has made it very hard for his gang to get re-elected in the next presidentials. war war war. the electorate has had enough.
the economy this time around politically is more important than for a long time. did berney get the job with conditions ? i hate to think so but he's used his position very favourably to help the republicans imho. sounds good anyway. looks so too.
the only way we'll be able to tell is whether berney goes for a rate hike before nov. if he does i'll take back what i say. if he doesn't and the data to nov says berney should have raised then expect one hell of a big retreat following the elections when rates finally go up.
will it once or twice or thrice ? .25 / .5 or more ? it will be very interesting to see how this all gets handled.
one thing, as i see it, is certain. bush does have a chance now to keep as many seats and govenors around the place as is possible. holding rates back will help tremendously. when it's actually presidential time again then bush will be off and the republicans will have a very hard time getting back in.
However they’ll have made the best of keeping as much control as they can now, albeit maybe lose the presidency.
the us economy data will tell us what to expect. i feel the way things are going the us will bottle up and explode sometime after nov. i was very sure rates would be 6% by xmas. they may well still get there. it will be an interesting 3 months to nov.
We could well be living in a false (fools) paradise.
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