Drilling programme potential, page-108

Its not hard for anybody to predict the actual SP, its the future selling price that is hard to predict. The market is driven by emotion, that we can be sure of.
Companies become oversold/cheap and overbought/expensive.
What is the current emotion towards oil companies.


Fear for non-holders thinking about investing:

Will the oil price ever come back up.
The company has lots of debt can it service it.
What if we dont hit oil in our exploration
They are lowering their dividends
Can they survive this downturn
There is no demand for oil and too much supply


Despair for holders (of most oil companies) mostly the same emotions as above:

Will the OP ever come back up.
God damn they are lowering the dividend, they are running out of money
Can they survive
The company has lots of debt
Climate change is turning everyone to renewables
I should sell and cut my losses


Add the shorting of the OP and the scare mongering media articles pumped into the media more than likely by said shorters and you have an oversold market IMO. So to say that the market has factored in 480MB into the current SP is for me a total guess. Its as good a guess as any and can be used as a guide but take its as only that. If its not correct then the whole spreadsheet is out straight away. AFAIK it has been recalibrated a couple of times on the movement of the SP so that in itself tells its own story.

PJ appreciate the effort of your spreadsheets but I take it for what it is, an educated guess.