Yes. That is pretty much how I see it. Nothing in all my experience tells me that business is rational, rather than emotional, psychological, or something. But PJs rock-bottom analysis correlates quite well with market sentiment right now, so it's a useful reality check.
But there is nothing surer than a change of sentiment in an oversold sector. I know I'm begging the question calling oil oversold. I don't doubt that oil is on 'the wrong side of history'. But it's a timing thing: oil is tobacco in 1964; oil is IBM in 1983 when all the smart guys knew that mainframes were toast; oil is Microsoft in 1992 when all the smart guys knew that open systems would win over proprietary.
The smartest guys left tons of money on the table.
Drilling programme potential, page-109
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