Hi Nammuldi,
Re:
"Include other prospects, FAN-1 - it obviously gets well below US$2.45"
For your interest, and for what it is worth, below are the oil values I am using in my spreadsheet in an attempt to reflect what the market will pay (not what a predator might assess). You will see the values are graded not only according to the oil price, but according to their status eg 2C, 2P, time to FID etc as stated.
View attachment 142016
And historically, working all this in, including cash, the FAR share price has pretty much correlated with the same oil price wise over the last year or so.
So yes, I agree, it obviously gets well below US$2.45 as you have stated above - in fact more like half that at current oil prices when, as you say you include all the current prospects in the calculations.
Just one further comment:
From the bottom row upwards through to development each incremental step in value requires work to be done and money spent to achieve the increase. Thus in broad terms for successful progression (unless you have a large spending pool and all is justified in the end), the post spend value must equal more than the money spent, including money spent on failures (sorry if that's just stating the obvious, but it all forms part of the rational for grading the values as above, and one reason perhaps that the market always seems to ascribe a lower value than one might initially expect). And anyway, if it didn't make these discounts it wouldn't allow predators to offer a nice tempting juicy premium to market price and still come up with a value where they can hope to make a profit
pj
(20min delay)