Sorry Jsoho, I can't let that go
1. Aqua is clearly stating he is talking 6 billion barrels recoverable, not STOOIP. What aqua states would be equivalent at the 30% recovery he is using to an STOOIP of 20 billion barrels.
2. Your area of 40 x 8 looks closer to the truth, but I reckon nearer 35 x 7 or about 250sq km not 600.
If you reckon 6 billion barrels STOOIP is reasonable that is more than twice Cairn's estimate of a 10% probability of 2.5 billion, so that again would look optimistic to me.
It has not gone without my notice that from point 2 we have a reduction of 6 x 250/600 = 2.5 billion as per Cairns P10 STOOIP.
Cairn's P50 STOOIP is 950, equivalent at 30% recovery if that was achievable to a next step of about 300mmbls 2C - why can't we stick with that?
pj
The kids, they grow up so quickly, page-23
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