Consider the following....
Sbbp in the next 6 months have to spend approx. 6-8 mill on a milestone payment to Anp on top of approx. 30 mill (I confirmed on fri) for running a phase 3.
This together = approx. between 35-40 mill.
Our market cap stands at around 8mill.
I remember Md's enthusiasm saying how Pauls was going to really work with Anp and was excited about moving forward with them. Clearly that hasn't happened with Pauls pulling out of the meet and greet and never rebooking this investor meeting and basically showing complete disdain for Anps plight (just look back at the events surrounding the release of the milestone info saga). In fact there has been no indication whatsoever showing they are interested in helping Anp move forward.
The Fda meeting for orphan drug status and the phase 3 go ahead was scheduled for Dec. We have no indication that this took place and even if it has, Sbbp have refused to tell us anything regarding its outcome or position. Similarly the outcome of the higher dose has not been divulged to investors either.
They have kept Anp's investors completely in the dark as to any outcome and refuse to create any positivity or clarity or interest in the stock. In fact they have done the complete opposite of what Md thought they were going to do.
Why? Why are they behaving like this?
If its not obvious by now it should be because we are being groomed for a takeover.
A few months back I said we could be taken over at 25c and got pretty well dismissed as being to cheap. Well if people are willing to sell on market at 4c then Id almost guarantee a takeover at 16c would get accepted remembering this a very loosely held stock.
At 16c it is under 30mill for a takeover and also under the cash they were going to spend and obviously well under the 120-170 mill in future liabilities to Anp as per the licensing agreement.
They make a massive saving.
They pick up 1102 and 1101 for nothing and get back all other indications for 1103. They pick up the 6mill in the bank effectively making it a takeover for shade over 20 mill. Oh but hang on they already own 8% so make that under 20mill around $18.4m in fact.
So under $20 mill cost and they lock the whole lot up.
Or they move forward and fork out $37m in the next 6-8 months and still be liable for another 100mill or so. The other thing to take into consideration is that they have about 70mill in the bank......they are already running their own phase 3.
So do they spend $37m or take a shot at spending under $2om with no future liabilities? (plus the little cherry on top being the revenues from Mytommorows). Which one is easier on their cash position?
Is it not glaringly obvious now?
Are we not at the bottom of the biotech cycle?
Has Pauls not shown he is a very astute business man(cunning as a shithouse rat)?
Its funny I said a while ago we were vulnerable and that we needed a deal rather quickly with 1102 to shore up our position....it seems we have moved just a little too slow....
lol ......May God save the Queen because nothing will save Anp
