LSE tonight, page-183

Great interview with Dave from back in November here


back then he gave it a 25% chance of commercial success, and my fav quote of his then. " we're not talking 10 or 20 times return on investment, we're talking much higher than that."

so with latest ann re derisking, i wonder what the chance of success is now.  30,40, 60% chance of success?  And also from the podcast above, keep in mind, that's only one of three plays for 88E

As for todays oil price, you would have to be a fool to think it will stay this low for long, with fridays big bounce and the bounce in bonds i think its possible we've already bounced off the bottom, and if not, im very confident it wont be far away.  Consider the sheer number of countries that have come out saying they cant survive much longer at these levels.   Consider the geopolitics surrounding the middleeast producers.  Consider the huge market growth potential of China and India alone.   And keep in mind all this hoo-ha about chinas growth slowing,  china IS still growing, sure its not at 10% anymore, but even at 4-5% growth, that is alot of growth for a population that size.  As for renewables, I agree the long term trend for coal is very poor, but oil is very different indeed.  around 30% of oil produced is used for industry,  everything for paints to plastics, and everything else in our lives thats made possible by oil.  Even if Tesla turned its massive losses around and became mainstream (which i doubt) there is still massive amounts of oil used to make each one, and heaps of oil in every tyre.  Theres nothing on the horizon for non-oil commercial planes or trucks. And lastly this myth that the price is due to oversupply is completely untruue.  Look at the world production figures are you will see we're making about as much as we did 10 years ago.  The 150$ oil came about when supply started to drop off, and that fueled this last decades massive push into unconventional's which stabilised a drop off in supply.  What happened was a hit to demand, partly due to more efficencies as a direct result of high prices and partly due to the GFC and the affect it had on the economy as a whole.  (unemployed people dont use much)

All in all, im very happy to have some money in 88E, indeed i wish i could find some more to invest, but do be sensible, it still has a chance to fail commercially, so dont go investing with money you dont have or cant afford to lose.  all imho of course and dyor