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What, if anything, are people buying today in this 2 day selloff?, page-83

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wombat53

7,702 Posts.

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16/02/16

19:18

Post #: 17035328
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Originally posted by madamswer ↑

"The inverse is the case with equities, which I won't explain again (it's nap time)....but very briefly, entered a secular bear mkt in 2001, punctuated by a couple of obvious cyclical bull markets, the most significant being The Great Recession, from which we've still not recovered.)."

Equities in a secular bear market since 2001?

What utter tripe.

In 2001 the All Ordinaries averaged around 3,200.
Today, even after the conniptions of the past few months, it is at 4961.

That's a rise of more than 150%.

It translates to a compound annual return for the Index of 3%pa. Add to that the 4% dividend yield, and you get a 7%pa total return.

That's a multiple of the average rate of inflation over that period, meaning equities created significant wealth in real terms

"I'm not sure if people are aware that gold has actually outperformed the S&P 500 since 2001- thru 2015, despite the brutal 40% cyclical gold bear mkt of recent years. This would appear to verify my thesis."

I am always very sceptical when I hear people talk about comparative returns over time frames that have point-in-time starts and ends. Because if you change the start date by a year earlier or later, experience shows that you could get entirely different answers.

And in this particular time frame you have selected, your 2001 starting point co-incided with the S&P reflecting the dot-com bubble starting to burst, while the gold price in 2001 was at a multi-decade low, having fallen by almost 40% in the preceding 5 years and having basically been flat-lining in the 5 years before that.

So your chosen timeframe conveniently starts with one data set at a local maximum and the other at a local minimum.

That's either a bit naughty of you, or it's a bit naive of you.

There's a quaint little saying that they use in the field of statistics. It goes:

"If you torture a set of data hard enough, it will confess to whatever crime you want it to."

Here you are torturing not just one set of data, but two.

Nice try...

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I as referring to US equties (I am American). I specifically mentioned the S&P 500 and you raise the All Ordinaries$#@@! WTF! Non Sequitur? Ad Hominem? Both?
I trust you understand the difference between secular and cyclical markets. I am sure you do. I hope so.
What (secular) bull market sees stock prices retreat in 2009 to 1997 levels, giving away twelve (12) years of gains? Let me repeat////TWELVE years of gains.? I have explained this in detail elsewhere, and said I would not do it again...I gave only a VERY brief snapshot. I said I had to nap...I'm up 18 hours /day. Feel free to follow me...as I follow you....since you and I are the only followers of Taleb on HC. I also suggest you look at the work of Jeremy Grantham since 2001. GMO is his firm

So you challenge me on the relative performance of gold vs SP500 from 2001 thru 2015 (While raising the All Ords?)? Huh?
One long term (the longest in US history) secular bull market ended (equities) and another began (gold)...apples to apples.
"What utter tripe." Not polite language, I know you are more sophisticated with careful use of language and thinking.
This could properly be interpreted as baiting / flaming, but I will refrain, because I respect you....just get a grip, hold on to your hat, and think about it.
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