Wow, busy day... I thought I'd jump in quickly with a quick reply while I can.
Excellent! I'm sure I speak for all in thanking you for your efforts on that email. It sounds like it was an absolute cracker and got their attention! Well done.
I think we all agree that we have a great product and a seemingly focussed, entrepreneurial management team but IMO, and market risk aside, there are some internal risks that I think need to be addressed as a matter of urgency including (a) their current level of transparency around key issues/activities, (b) their PR/external communications capability, (c) their product marketing/commercialisation capability (I hope to get a small insight to that next Wednesday) and (d) the maturity of their management systems (not only operations, but safety/health/environment/risk management). Just on the latter. The ongoing issue around noise complaints at the plant was IMO a systemic failure of a combination of (b) and (d) above, which needlessly added fuel to the fire yesterday and in all likelihood caused some lasting reputational damage. As far as I'm concerned, this is a 'licence to operate' issue and should have been resolved with a few more $$$ and common sense (on both sides of the fence) as a priority and in an amicable fashion, regardless of whether they believed they were already compliant. To let it reach this point is both disappointing and unprofessional.
The good news is that these are NOT insurmountable issues! Nothing has changed at a fundamental level, which is why I continue to hold (at least until the end of August based on LWP's recent guidance around an expected agreement). Without losing focus on their ongoing commercialisation activities, I believe now is an opportune time for LWP to reflect inwards (an independent internal review could serve up a much needed 'burning platform'), establish forward priorities, right-size/up-skill and clean up shop (top to bottom). There's no use having a world-beating, ISO certified, disruptive technology built on 'organisational quicksand' - we all know that story is likely to end.
If LWP can 'lean up' and get that internal engine humming (hopefully not too loudly!), I believe the above risks can be adequately addressed. Couple that with an oil price widely anticipated to start recovering in H2, and the world is our proppant! (I hate oysters - sorry!)
I'd be happy to hear from you, wsDK_II - I'm not sure about having solid ideas or approaches (very kind of you to say) but I'm always up for a little brainstorming on the side based on what Ziggy & Co. come back with next week. I'm intrigued.
Just some parting words to all before I shoot off...
Don't underestimate the potential here folks. As many have stated before me, this is not an overnight proposition. Expecting an agreement to arise immediately after a roadshow is bullish to say the least, but completely unrealistic. It rarely works like that. Our roadshows are at best a speed-dating exercise to see if a 'spark' can trigger something more meaningful to develop in the short to medium term!
You've come this far. Give it 3-6 months. Give LWP a chance to deliver.
Patience wins the day, and you won't want to be on sidelines when it does!
gh.
ps. By popular demand, the AOG show bag will be developed over the weekend with the assistance of a full-bodied red... as in wine!
LWP Price at posting:
0.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
