Best Gem to buy and hold..., page-5

Maybe. IPL could equally retest 2.30. If it does, it will be in coming weeks as WALA benefits will become more apparent to the market (though I think them clear today). My recent top up at 2.715 will then look premature and foolish.

I think the market is skittish about Qld gas cost and volumes. IPL has 3 1/2 Qld Ammonia plants - a big chunk of the business - that are adversely affected by LNG exports and the situation could get worse.

Also, mine closures are a negative and I don't think all appreciate IPL's output can go equally to fertiliser if explosives volumes decline.

IPL is a truly great business with many profitable expansion opportunities. It has invested very heavily in plant upgrades above and beyond Moranbah and WALA, driving down costs and up production. It could restart Maitland ON and Donora PA with only moderate capex - if the customers are there.

The WALA project itself is a stunning strategic move, displacing imports and for which Dyno Nobel itself is the main customer. Simple add-ons like a Nitric acid unit or an AN plant suggest themselves. On-site H2SO4 production means they could import Phosphate and make DAP.

I'd like to see IPL bid for Anglo American's Brazil phosphate business, which makes 1.1 mt pa simple phosphoric acid. Add an AN plant using cheap Brazil gas and make DAP. Further add potash, I don't know from where, and the operation becomes PNK.

It could buy eg LSB Industries which is struggling over an ambitious expansion and engineering problems with existing plant.

Many options.

GLTA DYOR