atomic79,
I don't make price predictions often but I made my prediction about the gold price on the RMS threads on 5/2/2016 when the US gold price was trading at $1,155.
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/where-to-from-here.2694050/page-12?post_id=16953793#.VsqRSnluntQ
"This chart is the reality at the moment and all I'm watching. Still moving the way I originally suggested it would and no sign of topping out just yet. US dollar POG $1,256 before the middle of this year (and $A gold price of $1,650 to $1,675) is my prediction and I'll stick with it for the moment. Eshmun"
The gold price increased a lot faster than I was expecting and touched $1,260 only 6 days after I made my prediction and in Australian dollar terms overshot my prediction by quite a long way.
Unless the world ends before June I'll stick with the numbers in my previous prediction and I'm expecting gold prices to oscillate (on average) around my predicted values up until then.
I'm still a gold bull as I think the US bear market won't go away until the ridiculous forward earnings multiples on which much of the technology sector in the US trades comes down to more bread and butter levels and until the debt markets have been properly purged. My bias for gold is still positive in the long run but I can see headwinds emerging come around June as I've explained below.
As far as the US central bank's tightening policy it is currently being called out because Yellen took her eye of the ball on falling oil prices which globally are a deflationary force and counter productive to her policy initiative.
In the last few weeks we have witnessed a very important and unprecedented quantum shift in the geopolitics of oil which has largely passed the market by with little fanfare. Putin went into Syria with a carrot and a stick not for the benefit of the suffering Syrian people but to play his hand in a game of Russian roulette with oil production. He has emerged the victor and now the middle east oil nations have started to chew their carrots and the new head office of OPEC is now located on the Black Sea in Sochi firmly at Putin's feet.
I rang the bell on the bottom of oil a month ago on the STO threads but my audience there were only a few shorters and a bunch of suffering and bruised longs.
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/can-wesfarmers-have-a-go-at-santos.2683280/page-25?post_id=16845856
As far as the gold price goes the oil price is going create headwinds coming into June IMO as it has now been clearly stated by Putin's new de facto oil spokesman (the Venezuelan oil minister) that if the seasonal effects of the oil production freeze don't start to normalise oil prices by June, the new oil alliance will consider other measures (ie production cuts).
The Saudi oil minister is talking at a conference in Houston tomorrow (I hope he is wearing a bullet proof vest) and his comments will be very enlightening. Last time he spoke at this conference was 7 years ago and he gave specific warnings to speculators in the industry. At that time he used the conference to announce a cut in product to lift oil prices from the $40/b to which they had fallen at the time.
As I've mentioned before I've been rotating my portfolio towards oil for quite a while now and am accumulating both long term and speculative opportunities on ASX as I think 100% gains are coming across the board and the oil stocks also act as a hedge to my largely gold weighted portfolio.
I'll update my prediction on gold prices after the OPEC meeting in June.
And on the subject of the price action on BDR shares. This warning for the short term outlook.
The boys and girls at Hartleys will be searching every draw and cupboard for double adaptors and power boards so they can plug in every algorithm and bot they have in the office to support the BDR share price at the moment because if the price slides back down towards 19.5cents they're going to find it awfully tough to sell tranche2 to shareholders and god forbid if the banksters pull a gold short in Chicago on those paper markets those same girls and boys are going to find themselves with some pretty sweaty bums on their seats behind their trading desks.
Eshmun
