The fact that 100% write-off of Quindell goodwill now being openly predicted by Chanticleer this morning, plus further write downs WIP expected, (which all fits with my modelling but you never know until "news" starts to break….)
Leads me to predict that most likely the next Ann, if it happens on Monday or whenever soon after, will not bring with it a lifting Suspension. Suspension will go on while the company has "debt restructuring" talks with lenders. This could be indefinite, i.e. weeks or months Leading to
- CR or debt/equity swap (more likely)
- Other restructure lending terms / opex cuts / asset sales
- insolvency (least likely, but possible)
I don't see how the stock could trade after write downs this size and what they imply for covenants and even more importantly forecast cash flow, until issues with lenders sorted one way or another.
If issues with lenders not sorted first and they announce ~$1b of write downs, and what this implies for forecast cash-flow, there would be a bloodbath in trading.
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