Shocks. Is that 56,866 barrels announced Jan-05 include the total production by LAR in Atzam during 2015?
Now, I would really like a calm discussion on this important matter, if possible.
For once, can we all agree that IF this is the case and LAR have been extracting oil from Atzam#5, that confirms at least one of two things.
If CTR management have known about this and have blatantly and contemptuously failed to notify its shareholders it's an absolute breach of the ASX disclosure rules!!!!
Or, the "breakdown" in communication between CTR and LAR has been so serious that LAR have refused to disclose any information to CTR given the new 90:10 ownership relationship (which let's keep for a separate discussion for the time being).
Now, from what we HAVE been told, LAR tapped into C18 and oil flowed, but, LAR plugged it because they considered it not to be a sufficient flow rate to be worthwhile to warrant them continuing testing C18 and moving to C17 instead. Remember LAR were then only to receive a gross 40% of A#5, i.e. 40 BOD!! That's the last we heard of A#5 and that's when it all went down the gurgler FOR CTR!!!
Now after that 90:20 "deal" was done, 90% of A#5 became 90BOD FOR LAR. That "could" very well be "satisfactory" for LAR when added to 90% of A#4, so, they went back into C18 and that's what has been flowing during 2015 and explains Page 41, Image 4..
But, if that is correct, we can only deduce that that 105BOD must be either coming from C18, or, IF LAR was to spend more dough and went up to C17, which most of us wanted to do all along, then, the BEST that we could have got out of A#5 IF they DID go to C17 when CTR was involved, would probably be no better than what they were getting from A#4 AND with the same problem!!
One could deduce that LAR (and possibly CTR management) HAD KNOWN all along from their experience in A#4, that C17 in A#5 was a greater RISK than what they could see in C18 and didn't want to RISK leaving C18 until it was exhaustively tested.
THAT's what blew the budget. Top flow from A#4, from LAR's experience, would always be around 120BOD MAX!!!
With the POO at those levels, I would bet my bottom dollar that such a "discovery" advised to the market would have had virtually NIL impact on the SP, contrary to all of our expectations.
So management would have HAD to have made a decision, WHY PROCEED with Atzam???
It looks like its a commercial dud for anyone other than LAR picking up a few dollars to keep their crew employed in a job?
What could ASIC say about that other than a "possible" breach of the ASX listing rules, IF, in fact, CTR even knew about it?
And where did that $3 million per annum come from?????
Peace.
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