whats price action telling me today..., page-13

Just a further note to EIA numbers released last night - they still have BRENT averaging $34.28 for 2016 now if this rally keeps going how can that be - we're only in March surely the way this is being pumped we're going to be at $50+ by the end of the year meaning an average well above $40?

From CNBC today:

"Earlier in the session, oil rallied after an Iraqi oil official told a state newspaper that producers in and outside the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plan to meet in Moscow on March 20 to discuss an output freeze. But Russia's energy ministry said no date or place had been set for the meeting."

"Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie said it expected "the annual average price for 2016 to be lower than 2015 and then recover in 2017, reflecting large oversupply and high stock levels during the first half of 2016."

"The consensus is for supply and demand to improve in the second half of the year. The problem was always with the first half .. which is heavy," Petromatrix crude oil strategist Olivier Jakob said."

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/08/oil-prices-dip-on-stronger-dollar-demand-concerns.html

Also from Reuters:

"There is no date or place set yet for a possible meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC nations, Russia's Energy Ministry spokeswoman told Reuters on Wednesday."

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-opec-meeting-idUSKCN0WB16V

A lot of people seem to be basing a lot of hope on this supposed meeting which was meant to freeze output..... stay sober if your speculating - I'm with moremoneyplease in that regard - LT investors buy on dips so these things shouldn't mean a  lot to them..

Again on the topic of hedges - EIA latest report on world oil consumption and production:

My main takeaway is balance not forcasted now till Q2/3 - 2017 & we're just about to head into Q2 2016 where the glut is forecast now to increase to 2.15m barrels a day for 12 weeks before dropping off. We're in Q1 and have another 3 weeks to go so in 3+12 = 15 weeks time things will look hopefully look a lot better... My reading only though perhaps these numbers being presented by the US are totally wrong & a lie and the US is trying to help the Saudis put more pressure on their oil industry in the short term....