Bellatrix next, page-20

Hi All

This thread wandered off topic, but no point starting yet another one.

Bellatrix scares the bejabbers out of me. It has been built up by some to be a near-certainty - 80% COS, string of pearls, blah blah blah - however it's anything but. A flip of the coin according to FAR, and that's fine; if we call correctly it's onwards and upwards for the SP. But it's pretty obvious that if BEL1 is a duster, our SP will be hammered by those same dark forces suppressing it now.

I have long maintained Bellatrix is the key to our ultimate value and I'm sweating bullets on the outcome. FAR might not be here for the FANs and if not, it's the shelf plays that will determine our final result.

Mind you, we will enter the Bellatrix straight with a rails run off the back of next week's resource upgrade. There is no doubt that will be huge. Cairn last night took a most unusual step in announcing it would release new numbers next week. Highly unusual. It has set the market on edge and IMO will mitigate against the usual retrace we see after an announcement such as SNE3. Instead, we might see a slight retrace followed by another build into next week.

There can be no doubt now that next Tuesday night will be HUGE. I'm expecting a TH on Tue ahead of a massive upgrade in resource more or less jointly announced by Cairn in London and Cath in Melbourne.

OOO